Weight your pipeline by the chance of winning
Enter the deals at each stage, your own chance of winning from that stage and the deal value. Get the weighted pipeline value, the expected deals and the value by stage. Free, no account.
Your pipeline value
Example inputs, pre-filled so you can see how it works. They are not typical deal counts or win chances: replace every number with your own.
57 open deals worth $171,000 before weighting are worth $17,700 weighted by your own chances of winning, about 5.9 deals.
| Stage | Deals | Chance | Expected deals | Unweighted | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contacted | 40 | 2% | 0.8 | $120,000 | $2,400 |
| Meeting booked | 10 | 15% | 1.5 | $30,000 | $4,500 |
| Proposal sent | 5 | 40% | 2.0 | $15,000 | $6,000 |
| Verbal yes | 2 | 80% | 1.6 | $6,000 | $4,800 |
- Weighted value of a stage: deals × chance × $3,000 deal value
- Expected deals: the sum of deals × chance across the four stages
Copy the numbers
This is arithmetic on the deals and chances you enter. It does not say what chance a deal at any stage has: take each one from how many deals you have really won from that stage. Every deal is valued the same, and the time deals take to close is not included.
How a weighted pipeline works
A deal at an early stage is worth less than one that has said yes. Weighting multiplies each stage's deals by the share you have won from that stage in the past, so the total is closer to what you can plan on than the sum of every deal at full value. The chances are yours: look at the deals you closed and lost over a few months and count how far each one got.
- Keep stage names the same every month so the chances stay comparable.
- Remove deals that have gone quiet for longer than you would wait before you count the pipeline.
- Compare the weighted value with the revenue goal in the revenue goal planner.
Keep the top of the pipeline full
Early stages feed every later one. Search 67Leads by trade and city, or start with businesses with an owner email and highly rated businesses with few reviews, then plan the outreach with the cold outreach volume planner.
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Questions
The value of the deals at each stage multiplied by the chance you win a deal from that stage. Use chances from your own closed deals: we do not state typical ones.
Count the deals you won and lost over a period and see how many of the winners were at each stage. Divide the deals won from a stage by the deals that reached it.
No. It values the pipeline at one moment and does not include timing.
No. It fills templates with what you type and makes no network calls.
No. The result is written when the page is served and not saved.
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